FDG-PET to predict long-term outcome from anti-PD-1 therapy in metastatic melanoma

We have previously shown that 75% of patients treated with programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) with or without CTLA4 who have not progressed by 1 year have complete metabolic response (CMR), including two-thirds of patients with partial response (PR). We now report 5-year outcomes.

Retrospective analysis of 104 patients with baseline and 1-year positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT). The 1-year response was determined using RECIST for CT and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) criteria for PET. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were determined from the 1-year landmark.

At the median follow-up of 61 months (range 58-64 months) from 1-year PET, 94% remained alive and all but one had discontinued treatment after a median treatment duration of 23 months (range 1-59 months). Disease progression occurred in 19 patients (18%): 10 (53%) while on treatment and 12 (63%) in solitary sites for which 8 (67%) received local treatment. RECIST PFS rate at 5 years after PET was higher in complete response (CR) compared with PR/stable disease (SD) (93% versus 76%, respectively) and CMR compared with non-CMR (90% versus 54%, respectively). In patients with PR, 5-year PFS rate was superior in CMR (88% and 59%). A total of 35 (34%) patients (14/29 in CR, 31/78 in CMR) discontinued treatment within 12 months, largely due to toxicity, with no impact on PFS rate compared with those that continued (84% versus 78%). Despite progression events, OS rate at 5 years was excellent and similar in patients with CR and PR/SD (100% versus 91%, respectively) as well as in those with CMR and non-CMR (96% versus 87%, respectively).

Five years after the 1-year PET, sustained responses are observed in the majority of patients, particularly in those with CMR. PET continues to predict progression better than CT, particularly in those with residual disease on CT. In the minority that progress, often in solitary sites and managed locally, OS rate remains excellent. PET is effective in evaluating residual lesions on CT and can predict long-term benefit.