Developing Non-Laboratory Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Charts and Validating Laboratory and Non-Laboratory-Based...

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Developing simplified cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment models is crucial, especially in resource-limited regions.
• Existing laboratory-based models can be inaccessible due to cost and availability constraints.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a simplified, non-laboratory CVD risk assessment chart.
• To compare the performance of the non-laboratory model against a traditional laboratory-based model.

Main Methods:

• A 10-year non-laboratory CVD risk prediction chart was developed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression on data from the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS).
• Internal validation and external validation using the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) data were performed for both non-laboratory and laboratory models.

Main Results:

• The non-laboratory model demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C: 0.73) and calibration (Nam-D'Agostino χ²: 11.01, p=0.27).
• It classified high-risk and low-risk patients as accurately as the laboratory-based model.
• External validation showed comparable performance for both models (Harrell's C: 0.77 for non-laboratory, 0.78 for laboratory).

Conclusions:

• A simplified, non-laboratory risk assessment model for cardiovascular disease is effective and accurate.
• This model provides a practical alternative where laboratory testing is not feasible.
• The approach enhances cardiovascular risk assessment accessibility in diverse populations.