Multi-predictor mapping of soil organic carbon in the alpine tundra: a case study for the central Ecuadorian páramo

Soil organic carbon (SOC) affects essential biological, biochemical, and physical soil functions such as nutrient cycling, water retention, water distribution, and soil structure stability. The Andean páramo known as such a high carbon and water storage capacity ecosystem is a complex, heterogeneous and remote ecosystem complicating field studies to collect SOC data. Here, we propose a multi-predictor remote quantification of SOC using Random Forest Regression to map SOC stock in the herbaceous páramo of the Chimborazo province, Ecuador.

Spectral indices derived from the Landsat-8 (L8) sensors, OLI and TIRS, topographic, geological, soil taxonomy and climate variables were used in combination with 500 in situ SOC sampling data for training and calibrating a suitable predictive SOC model. The final predictive model selected uses nine predictors with a RMSE of 1.72% and a R² of 0.82 for SOC expressed in weight %, a RMSE of 25.8 Mg/ha and a R² of 0.77 for the model in units of Mg/ha. Satellite-derived indices such as VARIG, SLP, NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, EVI2, WDRVI, NDSI, NDMI, NBR and NBR2 were not found to be strong SOC predictors. Relevant predictors instead were in order of importance: geological unit, soil taxonomy, precipitation, elevation, orientation, slope length and steepness (LS Factor), Bare Soil Index (BI), average annual temperature and TOA Brightness Temperature.

Variables such as the BI index derived from satellite images and the LS factor from the DEM increase the SOC mapping accuracy. The mapping results show that over 57% of the study area contains high concentrations of SOC, between 150 and 205 Mg/ha, positioning the herbaceous páramo as an ecosystem of global importance. The results obtained with this study can be used to extent the SOC mapping in the whole herbaceous ecosystem of Ecuador offering an efficient and accurate methodology without the need for intensive in situ sampling.