Special treatment of prediction errors in autism spectrum disorder

For autistic individuals, sensory stimulation can be experienced as overwhelming. Models of predictive coding postulate that cortical mechanisms disamplify predictable information and amplify prediction errors that surpass a defined precision level. In autism, the neuronal processing is putting an inflexibly high precision on prediction errors according to the HIPPEA theory (High, Inflexible Precision of Prediction Errors in Autism). We used an apparent motion paradigm to test this prediction. In apparent motion paradigms, the illusory motion of an object creates a prediction about where and when an internally generated token would be moving along the apparent motion trace. This illusion facilitates the perception of a flashing stimulus (target) appearing in-time with the apparent motion token and is perceived as a predictable event (predictable target). In contrast, a flashing stimulus appearing out-of-time with the apparent motion illusion is an unpredictable target that is less often detected even though it produces a prediction error signal. If a prediction error does not surpass a given precision threshold the stimulation event is discounted and therefore less often detected than predictable tokens. In autism, the precision threshold is lower and the same prediction errors (unpredictable target) triggers a detection similar to that of a predictable flash stimulus. To test this hypothesis, we recruited 11 autistic males and 9 neurotypical matched controls. The participants were tasked to detect flashing stimuli placed on an apparent motion trace either in-time or out-of-time with the apparent motion illusion. Descriptively, 66% (6/9) of neurotypical and 64% (7/11) of autistic participants were better at detecting predictable targets. The prediction established by illusory motion appears to assist autistic and neurotypical individuals equally in the detection of predictable over unpredictable targets. Importantly, 55% (6/11) of autistic participants had faster responses for unpredictable targets, whereas only 22% (2/9) of neurotypicals had faster responses to unpredictable compared to predictable targets. Hence, these tentative results suggest that for autistic participants, unpredictable targets produce an above threshold prediction error, which leads to faster response. This difference in unpredictable target detection can be encapsulated under the HIPPEA theory, suggesting that precision setting could be aberrant in autistic individuals with respect to prediction errors. These tentative results should be considered in light of the small sample. For this reason, we provide the full set of materials necessary to replicate and extend the results.