Use of Stability Modeling to Support Accelerated Vaccine Development and Supply

Stability assessment of pharmaceuticals in specific storage and shipment conditions is a key requirement to ensure that safe and efficacious products are administered to patients. This is particularly relevant for vaccines, with numerous vaccines strictly requiring cold storage to remain stable. When stability evaluation is exclusively based on real-time data, it may represent a bottleneck for rapid and effective vaccine access. Stability modeling for vaccines represents a key resource to predict stability based on accelerated stability studies; nevertheless, this approach is not fully exploited for these kinds of products. This is likely because of the complexity and diversity of vaccines, as well as the limited availability of dedicated guidelines or illustrative case studies. This article reports a cross-company perspective on stability modeling for vaccines. Several examples, based on the direct experience of the contributors, demonstrate that modeling approaches can be highly valuable to predict vaccines' shelf life and behavior during shipment or manipulation. It is demonstrated that modeling methodologies need to be tailored to the nature of the vaccine, the available prior knowledge, and the monitored attributes. Considering that the well-established strategies reported in ICH or WHO guidelines are not always broadly applicable to vaccines, this article represents an important source of information for vaccine researchers and manufacturers, setting the grounds for further discussion within the vaccine industry and with regulators.