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Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate
Florie Giacona1, Nicolas Eckert2, Christophe Corona3
1Unité de Recherche Erosion Torrentielle Neige et Avalanches (ETNA), Université Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environement (INRAE), Grenoble 38402, France.
Summary
Climate warming drastically reduced snow avalanche activity in the Vosges Mountains. A 240-year study shows warming led to fewer avalanches, smaller sizes, and shorter seasons, with activity shifting to higher elevations.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Natural Hazards
- Paleoclimatology
- Snow Science
Background:
- Snow avalanches are sensitive to atmospheric warming, but their long-term evolution is poorly understood due to limited data.
- Historical avalanche records are often sparse and incomplete, hindering analysis of climate change impacts.
- Innovative methods are needed to reconstruct past avalanche activity and its relationship with climate.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct a long-term chronicle of snow avalanche activity.
- To investigate the impact of climate warming on avalanche frequency, size, and seasonality.
- To understand the altitudinal shift of avalanche activity in response to warming.
Main Methods:
- Combined extensive historical records with Bayesian statistical techniques.
- Constructed a 240-year snow avalanche chronicle for the Vosges Mountains, France.
- Analyzed snow and climate proxy data to explain observed changes.
Main Results:
- A warming of +1.35°C between 1850 and 1920 CE led to a sevenfold reduction in yearly avalanche numbers.
- Avalanche size decreased, seasons shortened, and avalanche-prone terrain significantly shrank.
- Avalanche activity migrated upslope, with activity becoming restricted to elevations above 1,200 m a.s.l.
Conclusions:
- The study demonstrates an abrupt and significant decline in snow avalanche activity linked to climate warming.
- Scarce snow conditions at lower elevations (600-1,200 m a.s.l.) were the primary driver of this shift.
- Findings provide crucial insights for predicting future avalanche behavior in mountain environments under continued warming.
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