New estimations of child marriage: Evidence from 98 low- and middle-income countries

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target on eliminating child marriage, a human rights abuse. Yet, the indicator used in the SDG framework is a summary statistic and does not provide a full picture of the incidence of marriage at different ages. This paper aims to address this limitation by providing an alternative method of measuring child marriage. The paper reviews recent data on nuptiality and captures evidence of changes in the proportion married and in the age at marriage, in 98 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using data collected from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, survival analysis is applied to estimate (a) age-specific marriage hazard rates among girls before age 18; and (b) the number of girls that were married before age 18 in 2020. Results show that the vast majority of girls remain unmarried until age 10. Child marriage rates increase gradually until age 14 and accelerate significantly thereafter at ages 15-17. By accounting for both single-year-age-specific child marriage hazard rates and the age structure of the population with a survival analysis approach, lower estimates in countries with a rapid decrease in child marriage and higher estimates in countries with constant or slightly rising child marriage rates relative to the direct approach are obtained.