Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like lockdowns are effective but socially costly for controlling SARS-CoV-2.
• Mass testing strategies offer a potentially less disruptive alternative, especially with limited vaccine access.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess how mass testing and isolation can reduce reliance on NPIs.
• To model the combined effects of NPIs and testing on public health outcomes.
• To guide policy by incorporating testing system realities.

Main Methods:

• Development of a multi-compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
• Incorporation of NPIs, testing, isolation, test administration constraints, and non-random testing allocation.
• Evaluation of strategic changes in test administration, delays, and sensitivity.

Main Results:

• Reduced reliance on NPIs is achievable with high test volumes and short delays, particularly with low population immunity.
• Effective identification and isolation of asymptomatic infections are crucial for reducing NPIs.
• Coordination between NPI changes and testing capacity is essential to prevent infection surges.

Conclusions:

• Strategic adjustments to testing systems can significantly decrease the need for restrictive NPIs.
• Pandemic management requires flexible, context-dependent strategies combining NPIs and testing.
• Results inform testing capacity ramp-up, intervention design, and cost-benefit analyses for efficient pandemic control.