Will Americans Get Vaccinated? Predicting COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Rates Under Contingent Scenarios

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Economics
• Behavioral Science

Background:

• Vaccines are critical for mitigating public health and economic crises during pandemics.
• Understanding vaccination intentions is crucial for designing effective immunization campaigns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict COVID-19 vaccine uptake rates based on vaccine specifications.
• To identify personal characteristics influencing individual responsiveness to vaccine attributes.

Main Methods:

• An online survey was developed with contingent vaccine specifications (effectiveness, risks, immunity duration, cost).
• Population-averaged logit models were used to estimate uptake rates, accounting for respondent heterogeneity and interactions.

Main Results:

• Highest uptake (62%) predicted for vaccines with 80-90% effectiveness, minimal side effects, and zero cost.
• Uptake decreased with lower effectiveness (e.g., 50% for 50-60% effectiveness).
• Vaccine effectiveness response was moderated by self-reported concern; uptake decreased with cost, moderated by income.

Conclusions:

• Zero-cost vaccines motivate many but may not achieve herd immunity alone.
• Incentivizing participation among the unconcerned (43%) is necessary to prevent further pandemic spread.