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Estimating Exposure Risk to Guide Behaviour During the SARS-COV2 Pandemic
1Insight SFI Research Centre for Data Analytics, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Frontiers in Digital Health
|October 29, 2021
Summary
New "exposure risk" metric helps individuals understand personal pandemic risk. This measure, alongside traditional data, aids in guiding behavior during challenging times.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Communication
Background:
- The period of late 2020 and early 2021 saw increased virus transmission in Europe due to colder weather, holidays, and new variants.
- Traditional risk communication methods (case numbers, positivity rates) proved difficult for individuals to translate into personal risk assessment, potentially reducing the effectiveness of lockdowns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel metric, "exposure risk," designed to directly estimate an individual's likelihood of encountering an infected person.
- To demonstrate how this exposure risk metric can complement conventional statistics for better pandemic behavior guidance.
Main Methods:
- Described the calculation of exposure risk using existing data and infection prediction models.
- Evaluated and compared exposure risk across 39 European countries.
Main Results:
- The study details the methodology for calculating exposure risk.
- Comparative analysis of exposure risk levels in 39 European nations was performed.
Conclusions:
- Exposure risk offers a more direct and interpretable measure of personal risk compared to traditional epidemiological data.
- This metric can empower individuals to better calibrate their behavior, enhancing public health strategies during pandemics.
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