Testing the impact of first-mover advantage on household energy-related carbon emissions: an exploratory study from six urban agglomerations in China

The household sector has become the second-largest source of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China. It is important to understand the trends and changing mechanisms of household energy-related CO₂ emissions (HECEs) in different social stages for mitigating the impact of climate change. However, the existing trends in HECEs and whether they are congruent with the expectation that HECEs in later developed areas are lower than those in priority areas under the same economic level are unclear. Here, we compared the per capita HECEs (PHECEs) of urban agglomerations under the same economic standards and analyzed the causes of the comparative results. We find that (1) HECEs increased rapidly from 3.65 × 10⁸ t to 12.42 × 10⁸ t during 1995-2017, with an average annual growth rate of 14.19%; (2) urban agglomerations that developed earlier do not have higher PHECEs. The PHECEs of urban agglomerations with moderate and later development do not decrease under increased social, technological, and cognitive conditions; (3) carbon intensity (CI), energy intensity (EI), and per capita regional gross domestic product (PCG) have a positive impact on PHECEs, and the potential impact of EI on PHECEs reduction is greater; (4) the effects of CI, EI, and PCG on PHECEs in different urban agglomerations are various. However, these effects are similar within urban agglomerations. Our study provides a reference for reducing CO₂ emissions in the household sector and for the green development of urban agglomerations and emphasizes that the growth of HECE at a reasonable level is necessary when technology does not meet sufficient constraints.