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Objective consequentialism and the plurality of chances.

Leszek Wroński1

  • 1Institute of Philosophy, Faculty of Philosophy, Jagiellonian University, Grodzka 52, 31-044 Krakow, Poland.

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Summary

Objective consequentialism (OC) struggles with multiple relevant chances for act outcomes. This paper proposes using higher-level chances to resolve this issue, drawing parallels to the Reference Class problem in probability.

Keywords:
ChanceObjective consequentialismProbabilityReference class problem

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Theory
  • Ethics
  • Philosophy of Probability

Background:

  • Objective consequentialism (OC) evaluates actions based on expected outcomes.
  • A challenge arises when multiple probabilities (chances) are relevant to an action's potential consequences.
  • This plurality of chances mirrors the difficulties encountered in the Reference Class problem.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and analyze a novel problem for objective consequentialism.
  • To explore the structural similarities between this problem and the Reference Class problem.
  • To propose a solution for objective consequentialism regarding multiple relevant chances.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of objective consequentialism and probability theory.
  • Drawing parallels between the problem of multiple chances and the Reference Class problem.
  • Proposing the use of higher-level chances as a resolution.

Main Results:

  • Objective consequentialism faces a significant challenge due to the existence of multiple relevant chances for action outcomes.
  • The problem is structurally analogous to the well-established Reference Class problem.
  • A potential solution involves employing higher-level chances to determine the correct probability for evaluation.

Conclusions:

  • The plurality of chances presents a serious issue for objective consequentialism.
  • The Reference Class problem provides a useful framework for understanding and addressing this issue.
  • Utilizing higher-level chances offers a promising path forward for objective consequentialism in complex scenarios.