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Coordinating expectations through central bank projections.

Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh1, Luba Petersen2

  • 1Department of Economics, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2 Canada.

Experimental Economics
|November 1, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Central bank communication strategies impact economic expectations. Clear, simple projections improve stability, while complex ones can harm credibility and increase inflation volatility.

Keywords:
CommunicationCredibilityExpectationsExperimental macroeconomicsLaboratory experimentMonetary policyProjections

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Macroeconomic Policy

Background:

  • Central banks increasingly use economic outlook communication to manage expectations.
  • Understanding how communicated information affects public and market expectations is crucial for aggregate stability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide causal evidence on how central bank communication, specifically projection content and assumptions, influences expectation formation and economic stability.
  • To analyze the effects of different types of central bank projections (Ex-Ante Rational dual, Ex-Ante Rational interest rate, Adaptive dual) on economic forecasting behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a between-subject experimental design in a simulated macroeconomy.
  • Incentivized subjects to forecast the output gap and inflation under varying central bank projection conditions.
  • Analyzed the heuristics employed by subjects and their impact on expectation formation.

Main Results:

  • Ex-Ante Rational dual projections reduced backward-looking heuristics and moved expectations towards the rational expectations equilibrium.
  • Adaptive dual projections led to unintended inflation volatility.
  • All projection types reduced output gap disagreement but increased inflation disagreement.
  • Central bank credibility decreased with larger forecast errors, especially for complex projections.

Conclusions:

  • Central bank communication strategies significantly influence economic expectations and stability.
  • Simpler, easy-to-process information is more effective for managing expectations and avoiding volatility.
  • Inflation-targeting central banks should consider cognitive limitations and simplify communication for better outcomes.