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Summary

Backcasting designs a desirable future through proactive action, unlike forecasting. Past sustainability efforts failed due to insufficient investment in understanding natural systems and reliance on incomplete data.

Keywords:
BackcastingBiodiversityEcosystemsForecastingGlobal warmingMediterranean SeaNon indigenous speciesNovel ecosystemsRestorationRewilding

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science and sustainability studies.
  • Ecological economics and systems thinking.

Background:

  • Current sustainability initiatives have largely failed to achieve desired outcomes.
  • Past failures are linked to inadequate investment in understanding natural systems, including biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.
  • Over-reliance on predictive models using incomplete data hinders effective sustainability action.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the limitations of current forecasting-based approaches to sustainability.
  • To propose backcasting as a more effective strategy for achieving a desirable future.
  • To emphasize the critical need for enhanced knowledge of natural systems in sustainability efforts.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of forecasting versus backcasting methodologies.
  • Review of historical sustainability initiatives and their outcomes.
  • Identification of key knowledge gaps in ecological understanding.

Main Results:

  • Forecasting-based sustainability approaches have proven insufficient.
  • Lack of investment in ecological knowledge (biodiversity, ecosystem functioning) is a primary reason for failure.
  • Incomplete data and flawed models impede progress.

Conclusions:

  • Backcasting, focusing on desired futures and effective action, offers a promising alternative.
  • Increased investment in understanding natural systems is crucial for successful sustainability.
  • A paradigm shift towards proactive, knowledge-driven sustainability is necessary.