Mortality estimates for WHO SEAR countries: problems and prospects

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Statistics

Background:

• Cause-specific mortality estimates for 11 South East Asia Region (SEAR) countries are produced by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and WHO Global Health Estimates (GHE).
• Previous comparisons of these estimates have not been systematically undertaken for SEAR.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare GBD and GHE cause-specific mortality estimates for 2019 in 11 SEAR countries.
• To analyze the reliability of these estimates and identify reasons for discrepancies.
• To inform strategies for strengthening national mortality statistics systems.

Main Methods:

• Calculated relative difference (RD) between GBD and GHE estimates for 11 causes of death by sex for each country.
• Categorized RD as marginal, moderate, high, or extreme.
• Analyzed national mortality statistics systems to identify data limitations.

Main Results:

• Relative difference (RD) exceeded 10% in two-thirds of all comparisons.
• High or extreme RD was observed for tuberculosis, diarrhea, road injuries, and suicide in most SEAR countries.
• Significant data limitations in national mortality statistics systems were identified across SEAR countries, varying by nation.

Conclusions:

• Existing cause-specific mortality estimates from GBD and GHE show substantial discrepancies for SEAR countries.
• Weaknesses in national mortality statistics systems contribute to unreliable empirical data.
• Customized national strategies are essential to enhance mortality statistics systems for better health policy and research.