Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus docetaxel as second-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer in China

Pharmacoeconomic information for pembrolizumab as a second-line lung cancer treatment is insufficient in China, so we aimed to assess its cost-effectiveness versus docetaxel as a second-line treatment for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in China.

A partitioned survival model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus docetaxel in the treatment of NSCLC patients. A phase III clinical trial (KEYNOTE-010) was used as the clinical data. Long-term survival data were extrapolated based on the clinical study data. Lifetime cost and utility were calculated with a discount set at 3%. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to test the robustness of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

In the base-case scenario, the ICERs were $107,846/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and $448,414/QALY for pembrolizumab (2 and 10 mg/kg) groups, respectively. Both ICER values were 3-fold higher than the threshold of China's per-capita GDP in 2019 ($30,055.01). One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses showed that the price of pembrolizumab is the main factor affecting the result of ICER. Median ICERs were $108,658/QALY ($107,005/QALY-$110,089/QALY) for the pembrolizumab 2 mg/kg group and $451,590/QALY ($443,685/QALY-$457,496/QALY) for the pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg group using the current price in China. For patients receiving regimens with 2 mg/kg pembrolizumab, the probabilities will be exceeding 95% when the price of pembrolizumab decreases by 25% in a high-income region (willing to pay setting as $71,406/QALY).

The results suggest that for it to become a second-line treatment of NSCLC in China, a reduction in the cost of pembrolizumab is needed.