Epilepsy diagnosis based on one unprovoked seizure and ≥60% risk. A systematic review of the etiologies

According to the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) criteria, epilepsy can be diagnosed after one unprovoked (or reflex) seizure when there is a ≥60% of seizure recurrence in the next decade. The application of this diagnostic criterion, however, is challenging because the risk of recurrence based on different etiologies is not easily retrievable from the literature.

To assess etiologies that permit a diagnosis of epilepsy after a single unprovoked seizure.

We conducted a systematic review of the literature search using PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane library from January 1950 to December 2020 with the keywords: recurrence, risk of recurrence, absolute risk, risk ratio, risk, seizures, epilepsy, structural, infectious, metabolic, immune, and genetic. We included articles that reported estimates of risks of a subsequent unprovoked seizure. Etiologies were categorized according to the ILAE epilepsy classification. The quality of the evidence was evaluated with PRISMA. Descriptive statistics were used.

A total of 25,044 articles resulted from searching three databases. After authors removed duplicates, 18,911 articles remained. We screened by title and abstract, 40 articles were reviewed and finally, two articles were included. The mean follow-up was 8 years and the mean for a risk to present a subsequent unprovoked seizure was 66.6% and included structural etiologies as stroke, traumatic brain injury, cavernous malformation, arteriovenous malformation, and neuroinfections (unspecified agents). Study quality characteristics are classified with low strength of evidence and moderate-quality cohort.

We found that stroke, traumatic brain injury, cavernous or arteriovenous malformations, and unspecified CNS infections can meet the epilepsy diagnosis after one unprovoked seizure based on low strength of evidence and moderate quality of cohorts.