Effect of wind speed variation on rainfed wheat production evaluated by the CERES-Wheat model

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Climate significantly influences crop phenology and yield.
• Previous research primarily focused on temperature and rainfall impacts on crops.
• The effect of wind speed on crop production has been largely unassessed.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the influence of altered wind speed on rainfed wheat production.
• To assess these impacts in arid and semi-arid environments.
• To understand wind speed's role in wheat yield under various climatic scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a 25-year dataset from northeast Iran.
• Defined climatic scenarios based on temperature, rainfall, and wind speed variations.
• Applied these scenarios to the CERES-Wheat model within DSSAT v4.7.5.

Main Results:

• Wind speed variations altered total evapotranspiration (ET) by -12.1 to +8.9%.
• Aboveground biomass, water use efficiency, and grain yield showed changes of -8.4 to +11.0%, -13.4 to +19.7%, and -11.2 to +15.3%, respectively.
• Wind speed's impact varied with rainfall levels, being more pronounced on ET with higher rainfall and on biomass/yield under water scarcity.

Conclusions:

• Wind speed is a critical factor affecting wheat production, particularly in water-scarce regions.
• Current climate change impact assessments may underestimate agricultural risks by omitting wind speed.
• Future agricultural modeling and climate change studies should incorporate wind speed dynamics.