Effect of wind speed variation on rainfed wheat production evaluated by the CERES-Wheat model

Climate is one of the major factors affecting crop phenology and yield. In most previous studies, impacts of temperature (T) and rainfall (R) on crop development, growth, and yield were investigated, while the effect of wind speed (WS) has so far not been assessed. In this study, the influence of WS alteration on rainfed wheat production was evaluated in arid and semi-arid environments during a 25-year period in northeast Iran. In so doing, various climatic scenarios were defined using T, R, and WS changes, and then applied to the CERES-Wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7.5. The results showed that WS variation can alter total ET (planting to harvest) from -12.1 to +8.9%, aboveground biomass from -8.4 to +11.0%, water use efficiency from -13.4 to +19.7%, and grain yield from -11.2 to +15.3%. These changes were in many cases related to the climatic conditions. It was also revealed that in a greater amount of rainfall and shorter growing season (i.e., less drought stress), the WS variation had the stronger impact on total ET; while for aboveground biomass, water use efficiency, and grain yield, the greatest effect of WS variation was detected under the water scarcity conditions (i.e., low rainfall). The results demonstrate that wind speed needs to be better considered in climate change impact studies, in particular in water-scarce regions.