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Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study

Jong-Hoon Kim1, Hyojung Lee2, Yong Sul Won3

  • 1International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea.

Epidemics
|November 6, 2021
PubMed

Insights

The Shincheonji Church COVID-19 outbreak saw rapid transmission with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 8.5. Understanding transmission in high-risk groups is crucial for effective control.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The Shincheonji Church cluster in South Korea experienced rapid coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission.
  • The outbreak began with an index case on February 18, 2020, in Daegu City, leading to 3081 connected cases within two weeks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within the Shincheonji Church congregation.
  • To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in this high-risk group compared to the general population.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed COVID-19 cases.
  • Estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and credible intervals for the church population and the general population of Daegu City.

Main Results:

  • The basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 was estimated at 8.5 (95% CrI: 6.3, 10.9) among Shincheonji Church members.
  • In contrast, the R0 in the rest of Daegu City's population was estimated at 1.9 (95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4).
  • The model indicated 4 (95% CrI: 2, 11) undetected cases on February 7, suggesting early undetected spread.

Conclusions:

  • The Shincheonji Church cluster highlights the potential for high COVID-19 transmission in outbreak-prone populations.
  • Effective control strategies must address and limit transmission risks in such high-risk settings.

Keywords:
COVID-19KoreaReproduction numberShincheonji clusterTransmission model

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