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Efficient spatial multi-state capture-recapture model to study natal dispersal: An application to the Alpine marmot
Pierre Dupont1,2, Dominique Allainé1, Mariona Ferrandiz-Rovira3,4
1Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Villeurbanne, France.
The Journal of Animal Ecology
|November 7, 2021
Summary
Estimating animal dispersal is hard due to individuals leaving study areas. A new spatially explicit model accurately estimates natal dispersal and survival, outperforming older methods for species like the Alpine marmot.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
- Population Dynamics
- Wildlife Conservation
Background:
- Capture-recapture studies often underestimate dispersal and survival because individuals leaving the study area are not detected.
- Traditional methods yield biased estimates, reflecting only within-area movements, not true population-level processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a spatially explicit multi-state capture-recapture model for accurate natal dispersal estimation.
- To account for imperfect detection and movements into/out of the study area in capture-recapture analyses.
- To apply the model to a long-term dataset of Alpine marmots (Marmota marmota) to understand their dispersal patterns.
Main Methods:
- Developed a spatially explicit multi-state capture-recapture model incorporating imperfect detection and area-ത്തന movement.
- Validated the model through simulation studies, comparing it against a non-spatial multi-state model.
- Applied the model to a long-term, individual-based dataset of Alpine marmots.
Main Results:
- The spatially explicit model accurately estimated natal dispersal and survival probabilities, and mean dispersal distance across various patterns.
- Non-spatial models significantly underestimated survival and dispersal, even for short distances relative to study area size.
- Female Alpine marmots showed higher inheritance probabilities, suggesting greater philopatry, while male survival post-dispersal was lower, indicating higher dispersal costs.
Conclusions:
- Spatially explicit capture-recapture models are crucial for unbiased estimation of dispersal and survival in natural populations.
- The findings highlight sex-specific differences in dispersal costs and philopatry in Alpine marmots, with implications for their life history.
- The developed methodology is applicable to diverse species and monitoring scenarios, advancing ecological research.
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