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Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Environmental trends significantly impact evolutionary trajectories across generations. Incorporating these human-driven changes into evolutionary models reveals substantial effects on predicted evolutionary dynamics.

Keywords:
Integral Projection Modelsadditive genetic variancecovarianceenvironmental changeselection

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Quantitative genetics
  • Environmental science

Background:

  • Human activities create environmental trends affecting phenotypic traits.
  • Current evolutionary models often overlook environmental trends' impact on multi-generational evolution.
  • Quantitative genetic analyses detect environmental trend significance but lack evolutionary prediction integration.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe a modeling approach for incorporating environmental effects into evolutionary predictions.
  • To explore how environmental trends influence evolutionary dynamics across generations.
  • To demonstrate the impact of human-generated environmental trends on evolutionary trajectories.

Main Methods:

  • Developed multi-generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models.
  • Integrated environmental trends, representing reaction norms, into population models.
  • Analyzed the influence of these integrated environmental trends on evolutionary dynamics.

Main Results:

  • The described modeling approach successfully incorporates environmental effects.
  • Human-induced environmental trends can significantly alter predicted evolutionary dynamics.
  • Environmental trends, previously underrepresented in predictive models, show considerable impact.

Conclusions:

  • A novel modeling framework allows for the integration of environmental trends into evolutionary predictions.
  • Understanding and modeling environmental trends is crucial for accurate evolutionary forecasting.
  • Human impacts on the environment have profound and complex consequences for evolutionary trajectories.