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Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change.

Emiel De Lombaerde1, Pieter Vangansbeke1, Jonathan Lenoir2

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The Science of the Total Environment
|November 8, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Forest canopies provide crucial temperature buffering, offering cooler microclimates compared to open areas. This protective effect is projected to strengthen under climate change, potentially creating vital refugia for species.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Forestry

Background:

  • Forest canopies significantly moderate temperature fluctuations.
  • The impact of accelerating climate change on forest canopy buffering capacity remains uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess past and project future temperature differences between forest interiors and open habitats.
  • To understand how climate change may alter the thermal buffering capacity of global forests.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a global database of 714 paired temperature time series (forest vs. open).
  • Employed linear mixed-effect models incorporating macroclimate, topography, and forest cover data.
  • Hindcasted past (1970-2000) and projected future (2060-2080) temperature offsets.

Main Results:

  • Projected an increase in the temperature difference between forest interiors and open areas under future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).
  • Indicated that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas.
  • Quantified average increases in forest cooling effect: 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5).

Conclusions:

  • Forests are projected to offer enhanced cooling, with greater temperature buffering under future warming.
  • Maintained forest cover can create critical microrefugia, aiding species survival.
  • This highlights the significant role of forests in mitigating climate change impacts on biodiversity.