Comprehensive US database and model for ethanol blend effects on regulated tailpipe emissions

Particulate matter (PM), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and total hydrocarbons (THC) in gasoline exhaust affect atmospheric quality, and hence human health. Ethanol produced from corn grain is a renewable resource with favorable anti-knock properties for gasoline blending. Refiners alter petroleum composition to produce a finished blend that meets specifications. Ethanol blending affects emissions from market fuels both directly and indirectly since aromatics are typically removed from the BOB as ethanol is added to reach a constant octane rating. Numerous studies have been conducted to assess the effect of ethanol blending on light duty vehicle emissions. However, few studies have examined market fuel blends directly and small studies yield insufficient information to be generally applicable. If blending of fuels for a study does not yield gasoline that adequately resembles the composition of a market blend, the generalizability of study results may be impacted by nonlinear blending effects. Most vehicle-based fuel effect studies employed fuel formulations that either facilitate examination of several fuel variables or blend ethanol into a baseline gasoline (splash blending). Such study results do not support direct quantification of emissions inventory effects. To examine real world blending implications on regulated emissions [PM, NOx, CO, THC], we compiled a comprehensive database of US emission studies, developed regression models based on fuel and vehicle properties, and used those models to estimate differences in emissions from expected market fuel compositions. We addressed nonlinear responses to ethanol composition by modeling both low (up to 10% ethanol by volume) and mid blends (split models). We used the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) and Unified Cycle (LA92) driving schedule data, with the cold-start eliciting the highest emissions. PM cold-start emissions were lower with higher ethanol content, and more so at higher blend levels but hot-running emissions showed no differences with respect to ethanol level. For all emissions, the effects differed between port fuel injection (PFI) and gasoline direct injection (GDI) powered vehicles and for NOx, CO and THC there were differences between comphrehensive and split models. NOx results varied over blend levels and THC results were scattered for the higher blends. CO emissions were lower with higher ethanol content in nearly all cases for PFI but only the hot-running GDI. Results did not differ between summer regular and premium fuels. To the extent that PFI and GDI models differ, an emissions inventory calculation should treat them separately. There is uncertainty directly associated with the regression process, and with model inputs since study methods vary and compositions are reported differently between laboratories and test methods. Small changes in modeled emissions should be considered in this light.