Predictors of Mortality within 24 Months of Initial Arteriovenous Access Creation

End Stage Renal Disease is increasingly common, with approximately 785,880 patients currently dialysis dependent in the United States. 86% of these patients utilize hemodialysis. Arteriovenous (AV) access with either a fistula or graft is preferred over a catheter due to lowered complication risk. The purpose of this paper is to identify mid- term predictors of mortality to guide the type of AV access in patients with suboptimal cephalic veins.

This is a retrospective review of patient characteristics at the time of initial AV access placement. All patients receiving first time AV access were reviewed. Mortality data was found via electronic medical records review, social security death index review, and internet search. Patients in whom mortality data could not be found were excluded from the final analysis. Univariate analysis using Chi-Squared testing and Student T-Test was performed. Binary logistic regression analysis was also performed for multivariate investigation.

A total of 176 patients underwent first time AV access during the study period. Two year mortality data was available for 149 of these patients. Mortality occurred within 2 years for 27% of patients. Advanced age (70 vs. 61, P < 0.01), arrhythmia (48% vs. 24%, P < 0.01), abnormal EKG (36% vs.14%, P < 0.01), CHF (47% vs. 24%, P < 0.01), white, non-Hispanic race (51% vs. 22%, P < 0.01) and history of smoking (48% vs. 15%, P < 0.01) were statistically significant univariate predictors of 2-year mortality. Advanced age, white race and smoking were multivariate predictors with smoking having the largest impact (multivariate adjusted OR 11.8, P < 0.001).

History of tobacco smoking has a profoundly negative effect on two year survival in patients undergoing initial AV access. Absence of smoking history provides significant 2-year mortality protection and thorough attempt at autologous AVF creation should be made in these patients. Cardiac disease and advanced age continue to be lead predictors of mortality in ESRD patients.