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Updated: Oct 14, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Relapse-independent multiple sclerosis progression under natalizumab
Jonas Graf1, Verena I Leussink1,2, Giulia Soncin1
1Department of Neurology, Medical Faculty, University Hospital, Heinrich-Heine-University, 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany.
Confirmed progression independent of relapse activity affects 24% of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients on long-term natalizumab. Early treatment initiation increases the risk of this progression, highlighting disease duration as a key factor.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is characterized by unpredictable relapses and progression.
- Long-term treatment with natalizumab is used to manage RRMS, but its effect on progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the occurrence and influencing factors of confirmed progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) in RRMS patients receiving long-term natalizumab therapy.
- To determine if PIRA is associated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment onset, disease duration, or therapy duration.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective, cross-sectional study of 184 RRMS patients treated with natalizumab for ≥24 months at two German centers.
- PIRA defined as ≥12-week confirmed disability progression (1-point EDSS increase for EDSS ≤3, 0.5-point for EDSS ≥3.5) without a relapse.
- Cox proportional hazard models and stepwise forward regression analysis were used to identify risk factors.
Main Results:
- 24% (44/184) of patients developed PIRA during natalizumab treatment, irrespective of baseline EDSS.
- Time to PIRA was not significantly affected by baseline EDSS, disease duration, or natalizumab therapy duration.
- Earlier natalizumab initiation relative to disease duration was associated with earlier PIRA onset.
- Disease duration was identified as the main factor for PIRA development (P = 0.005).
Conclusions:
- PIRA occurs in a substantial proportion of RRMS patients on long-term natalizumab.
- Disease duration, not baseline disability or treatment duration, is the primary predictor of PIRA.
- Initiating natalizumab early in the disease course, often for aggressive phenotypes, may increase the risk of early PIRA.
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