Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland-Urban Interface

The increased risk of wildfires and associated smoke exposure in the United States is a growing public health problem, particularly along the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). Using the measure of fire danger, the Energy Release Component, we define fire danger as the onset and duration of fire season, in the continental US, between 1979 and 2016. We then combine the measure of fire danger with census data to quantify changes in population fire exposure across the WUI. We determined that the largest increases in fire danger were observed in the Southwest, Intermountain, and Pacific Southwest regions. The increased fire danger, specifically during peak fire season, accounted for 6.1 more fires each year and 78,000 more acres burned each year, underscoring the link between fire danger and the risks of large fire occurrence and burn acreage. Finally, we observed significant population growth (121.2% between 1990 and 2010) within high-danger WUI areas, further implying significant increases in potential fire exposure.