Prognosis of acute heart failure based on clinical data of congestion

This work aims to assess whether symptoms/signs of congestion in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) evaluated in hospital emergency departments (HED) allows for predicting short-term progress.

The study group comprised consecutive patients diagnosed with AHF in 45 HED from EAHFE Registry. We collected clinical variables of systemic congestion (edema in the lower extremities, jugular vein distention, hepatomegaly) and pulmonary congestion (dyspnea on exertion, paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea, orthopnea, and pulmonary crackles) and analysed their individual and group association with all-cause 30-day of mortality crudely and adjusted for differences between groups.

We analysed 18,120 patients (median = 83 years, interquartile range [IQR] = 76-88; women = 55.7%). Of them, 44.6% had > 3 congestive symptoms/signs. Individually, the 30-day adjusted risk of death increased 14% for jugular vein distention (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.01-1.28) and 96% for dyspnea on exertion (HR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.55-2.49). Assessed jointly, the risk progressively increased with the number of symptoms/signs present; compared to patients without symptoms/signs of congestion, the risk increased by 109%, 123 %, and 156% in patients with 1-2, 3-5, and 6-7 symptoms/signs, respectively. These associations did not show interaction with the final disposition of the patient after their emergency care (discharge/hospitalization) with the exception of edema in the lower extremities, which had a better prognosis in discharged patients (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.89) than hospitalised patients (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.65-1.57; interaction p < 0.001).

The presence of a greater number of congestive symptoms/signs was associated with greater all-cause 30-day mortality. Individually, jugular vein distention and dyspnea on exertion were associated with higher short-term mortality.