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Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
Matthew B Osman1, Jessica E Tierney2, Jiang Zhu3
1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. mattosman@arizona.edu.
Nature
|November 11, 2021
Summary
Climate changes over 24,000 years reveal temperature shifts driven by ice sheets, greenhouse gases, ocean circulation, and insolation. Modern warming is unprecedented in rate and magnitude compared to this paleoclimate record.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology and Earth System Science
- Climate modeling and data assimilation
Background:
- Understanding past climate variability is crucial for predicting future Earth system responses to external forcing.
- Previous studies using climate models and proxy data have yielded conflicting conclusions about past climate changes.
Observation:
- This study integrates paleoclimate proxy data with climate model simulations using data assimilation.
- A novel proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change from the Last Glacial Maximum to present is generated at 200-year resolution.
Findings:
- Past 24,000 years' temperature variability was primarily driven by radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases, alongside changes in ocean circulation and seasonal insolation.
- Global mean temperature has steadily warmed by approximately 0.5°C since the early Holocene (around 9,000 years ago).
- The rate and magnitude of modern warming significantly exceed those observed in the past 24,000 years.
Implications:
- This research provides a more robust understanding of natural climate variability over millennial timescales.
- The findings highlight the anomalous nature of contemporary anthropogenic warming in the context of long-term paleoclimate trends.
- Results underscore the sensitivity of the Earth system to both natural and anthropogenic climate drivers.
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