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Merits and Demerits of Selective Isolation of Superspreaders: A Mathematical Modeling Study Based upon West Bengal
Sourodip Ghoshdastidar1, Kamalesh Sarkar2, Biswajit Ghoshdastidar3
1Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.
Context:
All COVID cases and their contacts are considered highly infectious requiring isolation, which blocks the COVID isolation beds and disrupts life in the community.
Aim:
To find out the effect of selective isolation and contact tracing of superspreaders as compared with the conventional ongoing protocol.
Settings And Design:
A mathematical model was designed to look at the effect of isolation and contact tracing of only those with high viral loads (superspreaders) on COVID-19 bed occupancy and overall mortality, in comparison with conventional protocol of isolation and contact tracing of all cases.
Materials And Methods:
An agent-based model, calibrated to the ongoing West Bengal COVID-19 data, was run for a total of 178 days to find out the effect of the interventions on COVID-19 bed occupancy and mortality.
Results:
There is an impressive reduction in the occupancy of COVID isolation beds, even with the preintervention testing rate with no negative impact on mortality.
Conclusions:
Strict isolation of superspreaders only, maybe highly effective in reducing the burden on health care and solving the COVID isolation bed crises if the testing rate is significantly increased.
Insights
Selective isolation of COVID-19 superspreaders significantly reduces hospital bed occupancy without increasing mortality. Increasing testing rates can further alleviate healthcare burdens and resolve isolation bed crises.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Interventions
Background:
- Current COVID-19 protocols mandate isolation for all cases and contacts, straining healthcare resources and disrupting community life.
- Overburdened COVID-19 isolation beds and community disruption are significant challenges in managing the pandemic.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of selective isolation and contact tracing of COVID-19 superspreaders versus the conventional protocol.
- To assess the effect of targeting high viral load individuals on COVID-19 bed occupancy and mortality.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based mathematical model was developed and calibrated using West Bengal COVID-19 data.
- The model simulated 178 days to compare selective superspreader isolation with universal isolation and contact tracing.
Main Results:
- Selective isolation of superspreaders led to a significant reduction in COVID-19 isolation bed occupancy.
- No adverse impact on overall mortality was observed with the selective isolation strategy at pre-intervention testing rates.
Conclusions:
- Targeted isolation of COVID-19 superspreaders shows high effectiveness in reducing healthcare burden and addressing bed shortages.
- Increasing the testing rate is crucial for maximizing the benefits of superspreader-focused isolation strategies.
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