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Published on: July 12, 2018
Mortality prediction using clinical and laboratory features in elderly patients with severe community-acquired
Yaoli Zhu1, Xiaobin Zheng2, Kaizhuang Huang1
1Department of Critical Care Medicine, the Fifth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China.
Background:
Severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) is a serious health threat in elderly individuals, and a prospective, observational study was conducted to explore the prognostic factors.
Methods:
Patients (≥65 years old) with SCAP that had an intensive care unit (ICU) stay >24 h were recruited at our center. Clinical and laboratory data were collected and various assessment scores were calculated. The follow-up period was censored at the date of death or at hospital discharge, whichever came first.
Results:
A total of 120 elderly patients with SCAP were included. Among them, 61 were cured (survival group) and 59 died due to SCAP (mortality group). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD, β=2.061, P=0.008) and CD3+CD4+ T cell count (β=-0.019, P=0.017) were independent prognostic factors for death in elderly patients with SCAP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC) for the age- and gender-adjusted model was estimated to be 0.915 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.858-0.972] for mortality, and the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 91.53% and 86.89%, respectively.
Conclusions:
Our findings suggest that COPD and the CD3+CD4+ T cell count are independent prognostic factors for mortality, and the constructed model was moderately accurate in the prediction of mortality for elderly patients with SCAP.
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