Determining What Changed Japanese Suicide Mortality in 2020 Using Governmental Database

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Sociology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions raised concerns about potential increases in suicide mortality.
• While some studies indicated no rise in early pandemic suicide rates globally, Japan experienced an increase in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Discrepancies in suicide trends within Japan during 2020 necessitated a detailed analysis of contributing factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze annual and monthly suicide mortality in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic and pre-pandemic periods.
• To investigate the relationship between suicide mortality and COVID-19 data, including infection rates and pandemic duration.
• To identify demographic, regional, and household factors influencing suicide mortality fluctuations.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a linear mixed-effects model to examine suicide mortality data disaggregated by prefecture, gender, age, means, and motive.
• Employed hierarchical linear regression with robust standard errors to correlate suicide mortality with COVID-19 indicators.
• Analyzed data for both pandemic and pre-pandemic periods to establish baseline comparisons.

Main Results:

• Suicide mortality initially decreased during the first stay-home order but increased significantly in the latter half of 2020, especially for females.
• The prolongation of the pandemic was associated with increased female suicide mortality, while increasing COVID-19 cases showed a suppressive tendency.
• Populations younger than 30, urban residents, and one-person households showed increased suicide mortality, contrasting with national trends observed in males and the elderly.

Conclusions:

• Suicide mortality in Japan during 2020 exhibited complex fluctuations, with notable increases among females, younger individuals, and urban populations.
• The findings highlight the differential impact of the pandemic and its associated measures on various demographic groups.
• The study underscores the need for comprehensive strategies addressing multifaceted factors contributing to suicide during public health crises.