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Updated: Oct 13, 2025

Using a Bacterial Pathogen to Probe for Cellular and Organismic-level Host Responses
Published on: February 22, 2019
Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens
Emma E Glennon1, Marjolein Bruijning2, Justin Lessler3
1Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK.
Abstract:
The emergence of infectious agents with pandemic potential present scientific challenges from detection to data interpretation to understanding determinants of risk and forecasts. Mathematical models could play an essential role in how we prepare for future emergent pathogens. Here, we describe core directions for expansion of the existing tools and knowledge base, including: using mathematical models to identify critical directions and paths for strengthening data collection to detect and respond to outbreaks of novel pathogens; expanding basic theory to identify infectious agents and contexts that present the greatest risks, over both the short and longer term; by strengthening estimation tools that make the most use of the likely range and uncertainties in existing data; and by ensuring modelling applications are carefully communicated and developed within diverse and equitable collaborations for increased public health benefit.
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