Brain metastasis prognostic nomograms and brain metastasis velocity: a narrative review

To provide a review of the current status of predictive nomograms and brain metastasis velocity (BMV) in the prognostication of brain metastasis outcomes.

Statistical analyses have been used for many years in an attempt to predict clinical outcomes of brain metastasis patients. Such models have attempted to predict such endpoints as survival and which patients would most benefit from stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT).

This narrative review includes documents the history of statistical models and nomograms through the stage migration of the brain metastasis population from a population with large symptomatic brain metastases to the modern population with small asymptomatic metastases found on surveillance imaging. It also tells the history of the derivation and validation of BMV, a recently identified biomarker for survival and neurologic death in the brain metastasis population treated with SRS.

Statistical models predicting brain metastasis behavior continue to evolve with the changing landscape of systemic therapy and the more aggressive use of SRS. Previous models with ultimately need to integrate biologic data and will continue to be updated.