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Analyzing WSTP trend: a new method for global warming assessment.

Esmail Heydari Alamdarloo1, Ehsan Moradi1, Mahsa Abdolshahnejad1

  • 1Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

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Global warming is extending warm seasons in Iran, particularly in arid regions, with earlier starts and longer durations observed over 30 years. This trend highlights increased thermal energy and necessitates adaptive land-use planning.

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Mann–KendallPearson correlation coefficientSimple linear regressionSpatial–temporal variations of WSTPTIMESAT

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Area of Science:

  • Climatology
  • Environmental Science
  • Time-Series Analysis

Background:

  • Global warming necessitates robust methods for studying its impacts.
  • Warm-season temperature parameters (WSTP) offer a potential metric for climate change assessment.
  • Understanding regional variations in temperature trends is crucial for adaptation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the spatial-temporal variations of WSTP in Iran over a 30-year period.
  • To analyze trends in WSTP using statistical methods and identify correlations with time.
  • To compare WSTP trends across different climatic zones within Iran.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily temperature data from 1989-2018 for Iran.
  • Extracted WSTP using TIMESAT software.
  • Applied Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Pearson correlation, and linear regression for trend assessment.

Main Results:

  • Hyper-arid zones exhibit the longest warm seasons (approx. 195 days) starting earlier and peaking sooner.
  • Humid regions have shorter warm seasons but later end times.
  • Significant trends detected: 98% decrease in warm season start time, increases in base value (66%), length (80%), and large integrated value (93%).

Conclusions:

  • Iran is experiencing impacts of global warming, evidenced by extended warm seasons and increased thermal energy, especially in arid/hyper-arid areas.
  • WSTP, particularly start time and large integrated value, are sensitive indicators of these changes.
  • Adaptive land-use planning is essential given the observed warming trends and regional vulnerabilities.