A dynamic risk factor assessment for myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest in patients undergoing pancreatectomy

To identify pancreatectomy specific risk factors for myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest (MICA) and to assess whether addition of new information obtained during the hospitalization changes these risk factors.

Analysis was performed on elective pancreatectomy data from the ACS-NSQIP database (2014-2019). Risk factors were grouped into pre-operative, intra-operative, and postoperative phases. Factors were selected using a bootstrap resampling procedure to determine MICA association. Independent significance was assessed by logistic regression.

In the first 30 days post-op, 650 of 39779 patients (1.88%) developed MICA. Some of the surgery specific, intra- and post-operative factors that were identified are: delayed gastric emptying (OR: 2.61; 95% CI: 2.12-3.21), total pancreatectomy (OR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.29-3.42), pancreatic fistula (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.25-1.90), post-operative transfusion (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.03-1.58), and open approach (OR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.05-1.77). Adding new variables improved statistical model performance and the c-statistic improved from 0.69 to 0.76 in the final analysis.

Surgery specific, intra-, and post-operative factors were associated with MICA. Addition of new information during the hospital course changed risk factors and the statistical prediction of MICA risk improved.