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Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes.

Shuai Wang1, Ralf Toumi2

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Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is increasing globally, evidenced by ocean cold wakes. However, TC size and destructive potential show no significant changes over recent decades.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Direct observation of tropical cyclone (TC) properties is limited by temporal heterogeneity and short data records.
  • TCs leave a distinct ocean surface temperature "fingerprint" in the form of cold wakes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To infer trends in TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size, and integrated kinetic energy using ocean cold wake data.
  • To provide independent, indirect evidence of changes in TC characteristics from 1982-2019.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzing global ocean cold wake amplitude and size changes over 37 years.
  • Employing multivariate regression models linking ocean cooling, TC translation speed, and mixed layer depth to infer LMI and TC size.

Main Results:

  • A significant global increase in local cold wake amplitude of -0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade was detected.
  • Inferred annual mean global LMI increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s⁻¹ per decade.
  • No significant changes were found in cold wake size, TC size, or integrated kinetic energy.

Conclusions:

  • This study provides new, independent evidence supporting the increase in TC LMI.
  • TC size and destructive potential (integrated kinetic energy) have remained stable despite rising intensity.