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Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour?

Philippe Wanner1, Marco Pecoraro2, Massimiliano Tani3

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European Journal of Population = Revue Europeenne De Demographie
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Educational mismatch, particularly undereducation, increases emigration likelihood for Swiss workers and immigrants. Overeducation, however, is linked to lower emigration, especially for non-European immigrants.

Keywords:
Educational mismatchEmigrationOccupationOnward migrationReturn migrationWages

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Area of Science:

  • Labor Economics
  • Migration Studies
  • Sociology of Education

Background:

  • Understanding the drivers of labor migration and return migration is crucial for effective policy.
  • Educational mismatch, defined as over or undereducation relative to job requirements, is a growing concern in developed economies.
  • Previous research has explored factors influencing emigration but often overlooks the specific role of educational mismatch.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between educational mismatch (overeducation and undereducation) and emigration decisions among Swiss native and immigrant workers.
  • To differentiate between return migration to the country of origin and onward migration to a third country.
  • To analyze how these relationships differ based on migrant origin (e.g., EU/EFTA vs. non-EU/EFTA).

Main Methods:

  • Utilized linked Swiss administrative and survey data for comprehensive analysis.
  • Employed econometric models to examine the probability of emigration and return migration.
  • Differentiated analysis for Swiss natives, European immigrants, and non-European immigrants.

Main Results:

  • Undercducation is positively correlated with higher probabilities of both emigration and return to the home country.
  • Overeducation shows a negative association with emigration, particularly pronounced among non-European immigrant workers.
  • Immigrants from outside the EU27/EFTA exhibit a lower propensity to return home and are more likely to accept mismatched jobs in Switzerland.

Conclusions:

  • Educational mismatch significantly influences emigration and return migration patterns.
  • Findings suggest that immigrants from outside the EU/EFTA are less likely to return, potentially due to integration challenges or different economic opportunities.
  • Results underscore the importance of considering migrant integration and productivity when designing migration and labor market policies.