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A new nomogram for the prediction of bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer
Gang Bai1,2,3,4,5, Zhonglin Cai6, Xiuxia Zhai7
1Center for Reproductive Medicine, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Objective:
This study aimed to establish a new prognostic nomogram for bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer (PCa).
Methods:
This study retrospectively analyzed clinical data from 332 patients diagnosed with PCa from 2014 to 2019, and patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 184) and a validation set (n = 148). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a prediction model based on the training set, and a nomogram was constructed for visual presentation. The calibration, discrimination and clinical usefulness of the model were evaluated using the validation set.
Results:
Total prostate-specific antigen, clinical tumor stage, Gleason score, prostate volume, red cell distribution width and serum alkaline phosphatase were selected as predictors to develop a prediction model of bone metastasis. After evaluation, the model developed in our study exhibited good discrimination (area under the curve: 0.958; 95% confidence interval: 0.93-0.98), calibration (U = 0.01) and clinical usefulness.
Conclusions:
The new proposed model showed high accuracy for bone metastasis prediction in patients with PCa and good clinical usefulness.
