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Range Shifts Under Constant-Speed and Accelerated Climate Warming.

Ying Zhou1

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Lafayette College, Easton, USA. zhouyi@lafayette.edu.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|November 17, 2021
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Climate warming causes species range shifts. This study models constant or accelerated habitat shifts, analyzing population persistence and range-shift deficits, offering new analytic formulas.

Keywords:
Climate warmingIntegrodifference equationMoving habitat modelRange shiftsRange-shift deficit

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Global climate warming is driving significant species range shifts.
  • Previous models often assumed constant or fluctuating habitat shift speeds.
  • Understanding population responses to dynamic environments is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate population dynamics under constant or accelerated habitat shifting speeds.
  • To analyze the range-shift deficit, a measure of population distribution lag.
  • To develop new analytic formulas for population persistence metrics.

Main Methods:

  • Ecological modeling of species range shifts.
  • Analysis of population persistence under varying habitat shift velocities.
  • Mathematical derivation of population persistence metrics.

Main Results:

  • Species range shifts are influenced by both constant and accelerated habitat movement.
  • A significant range-shift deficit can occur, indicating population lag.
  • New analytic formulas for population persistence were derived, extending existing literature.

Conclusions:

  • Accelerated habitat shifts pose unique challenges for species persistence.
  • The range-shift deficit is a critical factor in assessing population viability.
  • The developed analytic formulas provide valuable tools for ecological forecasting.