A Value Sensitive Scenario Planning Method for Adaptation to Uncertain Future Sea Level Rise

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Social Science
• Technology Ethics

Background:

• Value Sensitive Design (VSD) traditionally focuses on current technological development.
• VSD has not been extensively applied to long-term, uncertain societal planning, such as climate change adaptation.
• Societal planning for climate change requires integrating ethical and social values into future strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel method integrating Value Sensitive Design (VSD) with scenario planning.
• To address the challenge of incorporating social and ethical values into long-term, uncertain planning for climate change adaptation.
• To test the method in a case study concerning adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden.

Main Methods:

• Integration of Value Sensitive Design (VSD) principles with scenario planning techniques.
• Application of the combined method in a series of workshops focused on sea level rise adaptation.
• Qualitative analysis of participant feedback on the method's utility and effectiveness.

Main Results:

• The developed method provided a structured framework for discussing long-term planning challenges.
• Participants identified essential social and ethical values relevant to sea level rise adaptation.
• The method effectively challenged established planning practices and stimulated creative solutions.
• Participants recognized the inherent uncertainty of future developments and the need for adaptive strategies.

Conclusions:

• The combined VSD and scenario planning method offers a valuable approach for designing adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise.
• The method facilitates ethical and value-based decision-making in long-term environmental planning.
• Further research is recommended to refine the method for broader application in climate change adaptation and other uncertain future developments.