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Updated: Oct 12, 2025

Monitoring Pedogenic Inorganic Carbon Accumulation Due to Weathering of Amended Silicate Minerals in Agricultural Soils.
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Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities.

Iain P Hartley1, Tim C Hill2, Sarah E Chadburn3

  • 1Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK. i.hartley@exeter.ac.uk.

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|November 19, 2021
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Climate warming causes significant soil carbon loss, especially in coarse-textured soils. Current Earth system models may inaccurately predict these carbon (C) losses and vulnerable soil stocks.

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Area of Science:

  • Soil science
  • Climate science
  • Geochemistry

Background:

  • Physical and chemical stabilization mechanisms critically control soil carbon (C) storage.
  • Previous predictions suggested climate warming-induced C losses might be lower than anticipated due to these mechanisms.
  • Understanding temperature effects on soil C storage is vital for climate change modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between mean annual temperature and soil carbon storage across diverse soil types.
  • To determine if soil texture influences the vulnerability of carbon stocks to warming.
  • To evaluate the performance of Earth System Models (ESMs) in predicting temperature-driven soil C dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of over 9,000 soil profiles globally.
  • Statistical examination of carbon storage in relation to mean annual temperature.
  • Comparison of findings across different soil textures (coarse vs. fine).
  • Inclusion of confounding factors such as plant productivity, precipitation, aridity, cation exchange capacity, and pH.

Main Results:

  • Overall soil carbon storage declines significantly with increasing mean annual temperature.
  • The reduction in C storage per degree of warming was over three times greater in coarse-textured soils compared to fine-textured soils.
  • This temperature-texture interaction was consistent across cool and warm regions and robust to confounding factors.
  • Established Earth System Models (ESMs) could not replicate these observed patterns.

Conclusions:

  • Warming is projected to cause substantial soil carbon losses.
  • Coarse-textured soils are particularly vulnerable to temperature-induced carbon loss due to limited organic matter stabilization capacity.
  • Current ESMs may underestimate the extent and spatial variability of soil carbon loss due to warming.
  • There is a critical need to improve ESMs to accurately predict soil carbon dynamics and identify vulnerable stocks under climate change.