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Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns
Matthew G Burgess1,2,3, Amanda R Carrico4, Steven D Gaines5
1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. matthew.g.burgess@colorado.edu.
Nature Human Behaviour
|November 19, 2021
Summary
Developed democracies face slowing economic growth due to structural issues and global challenges. Preparing for fiscal and social stress requires a guided civic revival focused on well-being and shared identity.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Economics
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Developed democracies experienced unprecedented economic growth over two centuries.
- Macroeconomic forecasts predict a slowdown in 21st-century growth due to factors like aging populations, innovation shifts, and debt.
- The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change may exacerbate this growth deceleration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the potential impacts of slowing economic growth on developed democracies.
- To propose strategies for developed democracies to navigate impending fiscal and social challenges.
- To advocate for a 'guided civic revival' to foster resilience and well-being.
Main Methods:
- The study synthesizes macroeconomic forecasts and sustainability science perspectives.
- It analyzes structural reasons for projected economic slowdown.
- It proposes policy recommendations for societal adaptation.
Main Results:
- Slowing economic growth is projected for developed democracies throughout the 21st century.
- This slowdown presents significant fiscal and social stress, with some indicators already visible.
- Sustainability scientists suggest degrowth may be an environmental necessity.
Conclusions:
- Developed democracies must proactively prepare for economic and social challenges.
- A 'guided civic revival' is essential, focusing on inequality reduction, social integration, and enhanced well-being.
- Investment in democratic institutions and non-economic drivers of well-being is crucial for future stability.
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