Main pulmonary artery enlargement predicts 90-day readmissions in Chinese COPD patients

Numerous studies have shown pulmonary artery enlargement when measured by chest computed tomography (CT) could predict a worse outcome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Herein, we studied the prognostic implication of main pulmonary artery diameter (MPAD) in Chinese COPD patients.

This is an observational case-control study. Patients with 90-day readmissions are case group and those without 90-day readmission are control group. The study comprised of 417 COPD patients who underwent chest CT in their initial admission due to acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD). We analyzed their clinical characteristics such as MPAD, arterial blood gas (ABG) results, other chest CT findings and comorbidities to identify the cause of readmission within 90 days.

Median age of our study population is 75 years old, and 79.6% of them are male. The median MPAD is 2.8 cm and 80.6% were also diagnosed with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in their first admission. The median MPAD in patients with 90-day readmission was 3.1 cm while patients without 90-day readmission had median MPAD of 2.8 cm. Through multivariate logistic regression analysis CAP (P=0.019, OR: 3.105, 95% CI: 1.203-8.019) and MPAD (P<0.001, OR: 2.898, 95% CI: 1.824-4.605) were statistically significant. In the second stage of analysis, subgroup of patients diagnosed with CAP and AECOPD (pAECOPD) were analyzed, MPAD remained statistically significant (P<0.001, OR: 3.490, 95% CI: 1.929-6.316) and receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve for pAECOPD patients; area under the curve (AUC) was 0.704 (95% CI: 0.631-0.778) with a MPAD cut off value of 2.9 cm (sensitivity 72%, specificity 53%).

Enlarged MPAD and pAECOPD in initial admission are independent risk factors for 90-day readmission. In our pAECOPD patient population, MPAD >2.9 cm are at increased risk of 90-day readmission.