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A yearly maximum sea level simulator and its applications: A Stockholm case study
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden. magnus.hieronymus@smhi.se.
Ambio
|November 20, 2021
Summary
A new simulator for Stockholm assesses future flood risk by combining sea level rise and extreme events. Mean sea level uncertainty significantly impacts risk, highlighting the need for adaptive planning and improved building regulations.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Urban Planning
Background:
- Rising sea levels pose significant risks to coastal urban areas like Stockholm.
- Current building regulations may not adequately account for future sea level changes and extreme events.
- Probabilistic frameworks are needed to assess and manage climate-related risks in infrastructure development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a yearly maximum sea level simulator for Stockholm.
- To integrate extreme sea level estimates with mean sea level rise projections into a unified probabilistic model.
- To provide a tool for assessing future flood risks and informing building regulations and adaptation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Developed a joint probabilistic framework combining extreme sea level data and mean sea level rise projections.
- Utilized the framework to assess the risk of flooding for new structures.
- Quantified the influence of uncertainties in sea level projections, extreme estimates, and emission scenarios on flood risk.
- Evaluated the effectiveness of adaptation measures, such as protective structures.
- Embedded the framework into a decision problem for calculating risk/reward ratios for land development.
Main Results:
- The simulator provides a probabilistic assessment of future sea level impacts in Stockholm.
- Mean sea level uncertainty was found to be a more significant factor in flood risk than extreme sea level uncertainty for Stockholm.
- Protective measures implemented after a certain sea level threshold can be highly efficient.
- The framework allows for the calculation of risk/reward ratios for land development based on elevation.
Conclusions:
- The developed framework offers a robust method for assessing future flood risks in coastal cities.
- Uncertainty in mean sea level rise projections is a critical factor for Stockholm's future flood risk.
- Adaptive strategies, particularly those implemented at strategic sea level thresholds, can be effective.
- The simulator can inform more rational and data-driven building regulations and urban planning decisions.
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