A resampling approach to disaggregate analysis of bus-involved crashes using panel data with excessive zeros

Public bus constitutes more than 70% of the overall road-based public transport patronage in Hong Kong, and its crash involvement rate has been the highest among all public transport modes. Though previous studies had identified explanatory factors that affect the crash risk of buses, use of considerably imbalanced crash data with excessive zero observations could lead to inaccurate parameter estimation. This study aims to resolve the excess zero problem of disaggregate analysis of bus-involved crashes based on synthetic data using a Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique for panel data (SMOTE-P). Dataset comprising crash, traffic, and road inventory data of 88 road segments in Hong Kong during the period from 2014 to 2017 is used. To assess the data balancing performance, other common data generation approaches such as Random Under-sampling of the Majority Class (RUMC) technique, Cluster-Based Under-Sampling (CBUS), and mixed resampling, are also considered. Random effect Poisson (REP) models based on synthetic data and random effect zero-inflated Poisson (REZIP) model based on original data are estimated. Results indicate that REP model based on synthetic data using SMOTE-P outperforms REZIP model based on original data and REP models based on synthetic data using RUMC, CBUS and mixed approaches, in terms of statistical fit, prediction error, and explanatory factors identified. Results of model estimation based on SMOTE-P suggest that factors including morning peak, evening peak, hourly traffic flow, average lane width, road length, bus stop density, percentage of bus in the traffic stream, and presence of bus priority lane all affect the bus-involved crash frequency. More importantly, this study provides a feasible solution for disaggregate crash analysis with imbalanced panel data.