Forecasting global aluminium flows to demonstrate the need for improved sorting and recycling methods.

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Environmental Engineering
• Industrial Ecology

Background:

• Growing aluminium recycling necessitates better understanding of scrap surplus evolution.
• Current global aluminium flow models lack sufficient detail for accurate scrap surplus forecasting.
• Uncertainty in scrap surplus hinders economic and environmental benefit assessment of enhanced recycling.

Purpose of the Study:

• To enhance the International Aluminium Institute's global flow model with alloy series resolution.
• To improve estimates of secondary aluminium production potential by analyzing recovered scrap composition.
• To forecast the evolution of the global aluminium scrap surplus under different scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Integration of alloy series into the existing global aluminium flow model.
• Estimation of recovered aluminium scrap composition.
• Sensitivity analysis of critical parameters like automotive electrification and product lifespan.
• Validation of model outputs using scrap composition data from a Belgian recycling facility.

Main Results:

• The global aluminium scrap surplus is estimated to emerge soon.
• Projected surplus of 5.4 million tonnes by 2030 and 8.7 million tonnes by 2040, assuming no improvements in current recycling methods.
• Sensitivity analysis highlights the impact of electrification and scrap composition on surplus evolution.

Conclusions:

• Enhanced aluminium sorting and recycling technologies are vital to address the impending scrap surplus.
• Accurate forecasting of secondary aluminium production potential requires detailed scrap composition analysis.
• Policy and industry planning must account for the projected growth in aluminium scrap.