A Novel Prognostic Model Based on the Serum Iron Level for Patients With Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

The dysregulation of iron homeostasis has been explored in malignancies. However, studies focusing on the association between the serum iron level and prognosis of patients with early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) are scarce. Accordingly, in current study, 272 patients with early-stage TNBC treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) between September 2005 and October 2016 were included as a training cohort, another 86 patients from a previous randomized trial, SYSUCC-001, were analyzed as a validation cohort (SYSUCC-001 cohort). We retrospectively collected their clinicopathological data and tested the serum iron level using blood samples at the diagnosis. In the training cohort, patients were divided into low-iron and high-iron groups according to the serum iron level cut-off of 17.84 μmol/L determined by maximally selected rank statistics. After a median follow-up of 87.10 months, patients with a low iron had a significantly longer median disease-free survival (DFS) of 89.13 [interquartile range (IQR): 66.88-117.38] months and median overall survival (OS) of 92.85 (IQR: 68.83-117.38) months than those in the high-iron group (median DFS: 75.25, IQR: 39.76-105.70 months, P = 0.015; median OS: 77.17, IQR: 59.38-110.28 months, P = 0.015). Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated the serum iron level to be an independent predictor for DFS and OS. Then, a prognostic nomogram incorporating the serum iron level, T stage and N stage was developed for individualized prognosis predictions. It had good discriminative ability with a C-index of DFS (0.729; 95% CI 0.666-0.792) and OS (0.739; 95% CI 0.666-0.812), respectively. Furtherly, we validated the predictive model in the SYSUCC-001 cohort, which also showed excellent predictive performance with a C-index of DFS (0.735; 95% CI 0.614-0.855) and OS (0.722; 95% CI 0.577-0.867), respectively. All these suggested that the serum iron level might be a potential prognostic biomarker for patients with early-stage TNBC, the predictive model based on it might be served as a practical tool for individualized survival predictions.