Uncertain Future of American Lithium: A Perspective until 2050

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Energy Policy
• Environmental Science

Background:

• The United States transitioned from a major lithium producer to an importer, heavily relying on Asian supply chains for lithium-ion batteries.
• Current U.S. lithium demand is driven by applications like electric vehicles, energy storage, and electronics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model future U.S. lithium demand under various scenarios, including the impact of COVID-19.
• To analyze the lithium requirements for key sectors: electric/hybrid vehicles, stationary energy storage, and small electronics.

Main Methods:

• Scenario generation to project lithium usage from 2020-2050.
• Comparative analysis of four distinct future scenarios, including "Sustainable Future" and "Fossil Fuel Everything".

Main Results:

• The "Sustainable Future" scenario projects the highest cumulative lithium demand (1281 Gg), peaking in 2040.
• The "Fossil Fuel Everything" scenario indicates significantly lower demand (500 Gg), peaking in 2050.
• COVID-19 impacts on long-term lithium demand were found to be negligible.

Conclusions:

• Future U.S. electrification, particularly for vehicles and energy storage, hinges on secure international lithium chemical and battery supply chains.
• Vigorous domestic recycling initiatives are crucial for a resilient and sustainable lithium supply.