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Updated: Oct 12, 2025
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Laboratory Techniques Used to Maintain and Differentiate Biotypes of Vibrio cholerae Clinical and Environmental Isolates
Published on: May 30, 2017
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Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
Gina E C Charnley1,2, Ilan Kelman3,4,5, Nathan Green6
1School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK. g.charnley19@imperial.ac.uk.
BMC Infectious Diseases
|November 23, 2021
Summary
Drought significantly increases cholera outbreak risk in Africa. Sustainable development and reduced emissions may mitigate future cholera, but impacts vary geographically.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Climate change research
Background:
- Temperature and precipitation influence Vibrio cholerae outbreaks.
- The specific impact of drought on cholera outbreaks, particularly in Africa, remains understudied.
- Africa faces high risks from both drought and cholera.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with drought and cholera outbreaks in Africa.
- To project future cholera outbreak trends under different global change scenarios.
- To understand the role of drought as a risk factor for cholera in Africa.
Main Methods:
- Utilized generalized linear models with publicly available national data.
- Analyzed environmental and socioeconomic covariates alongside drought indices.
- Developed cholera outbreak projections to 2070 based on CO2 emissions, socioeconomic development, and population growth scenarios.
Main Results:
- Drought is identified as a significant risk factor for cholera outbreaks in Africa.
- Population, temperature, and poverty positively correlate with outbreaks, while freshwater withdrawal shows a negative association.
- Stringent emissions pathways and sustainable development may reduce future cholera occurrences, though with spatial variations.
Conclusions:
- Drought explains recent cholera outbreaks, but sustainable development can potentially counteract future drought-related risks.
- Future research should focus on finer spatial scales and non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden nations.
- Sustainable development strategies show promise in mitigating drought-associated cholera risks.
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