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Modeling epidemic recovery: An expert elicitation on issues and approaches
Monica Schoch-Spana1, Sanjana J Ravi1, Elena K Martin1
1The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, 621 East Pratt Street, Pier IV Building, Suite 210, Baltimore, MD, 21202, USA.
Developing effective epidemic recovery requires expert insights beyond medical concerns. This study outlines principles for a holistic, community-level recovery model distinct from natural disaster response.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Disaster Management
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for structured post-epidemic recovery plans.
- Existing disaster recovery models are insufficient for complex, long-duration epidemics.
- Expert judgment is crucial for developing recovery strategies when data is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key principles and priority issues for an epidemic recovery model.
- To inform the development of a holistic, community-level post-epidemic recovery framework.
- To differentiate epidemic recovery from natural disaster recovery.
Main Methods:
- Expert elicitation process involving fourteen key informants.
- Informants specialized in infectious diseases, disaster recovery, public health, and policymaking.
- Qualitative data collection on design principles, priority issues, and field experiences.
Main Results:
- Epidemic recovery is distinct from natural disasters due to prolonged impact and psychological effects.
- Recovery is a complex, nonlinear process spanning political, economic, sociocultural, infrastructural, and health domains.
- An effective model must be multi-domain, consider social determinants of health, and be user-specific.
Conclusions:
- A comprehensive epidemic recovery model must extend beyond medical aspects.
- The model should specify units of interest and account for diverse recovery trajectories.
- This study initiates efforts to create indicators for transformative community-level epidemic recovery.
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